Dynamic Theories of Power Politics and China’s Belt and Road Initiative

• In Event: The Effectiveness (or Not) of Coercion

Abstract

Since its launch in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has quickly become the cornerstone of China’s foreign policy under Xi Jinping’s leadership. It has attracted worldwide attention among policy makers and scholars. Much of the existing scholarship has focused on Beijing’s motivations, domestic politics, roots within China’s strategic culture, policy instruments, and the perceptions, effects, and implications across various countries and regions.

However, little research has examined the complex causal mechanisms of the BRI in a rigorous way. How, for example, does the BRI look in the context of dynamic theories of power politics? More specifically, how well are power transition, power cycle, dynamic differentials, predation and other IR theories that focus on the dynamics of capabilities able to explain the impact of BRI upon policies and outcomes at the international level? Through the prism of systemism, this paper seeks to answer such questions. The systemist approach, which emphasizes graphic portrayal of cause and effect, is well-suited to the task of comparing and evaluating theoretical arguments about developments such as the BRI. The paper proceeds in four sections. The second section provides an overview of the BRI. The third section reviews the power transition theory, power cycle, dynamic differentials, predation and other relevant IR theories. The fourth section employs the systemist approach to illustrate and critically assess the causes and effects of these theories in the context of the BRI. The goal is to produce a better theoretical model to explain the China-led multilateral initiative.

Authors

• Enyu Zhang, Seattle University

• Patrick James, University of Southern California