Who Emigrates? Political Consequences of Emigration in Eastern Europe

• In Event: Who Moves? Diasporas, Forced & Voluntary Migration, and Electoral Consequences

Abstract

Does out-migration have political consequences in sending countries? This paper explores (1) the attributes of Eastern Europeans who choose to emigrate to the west, and (2) how the rate of out-migration affects electoral outcomes in Eastern European sending countries. The previous literature on emigration and its political impact in sending countries is largely focused on the political effects of remittances. These studies consider emigration mainly as a source of foreign capital inflows, rather than as an outflow of political actors. I argue that individuals who have more liberal values are more likely to emigrate, making the remaining pool of voters more conservative and nationalistic. This leads to the prediction that regions with high rates of out-migration will have larger vote shares for far right parties, holding other regional factors constant. To address this question, I use data from the Life in Transition survey, which provides demographic information about emigrant respondents, along with data on regional out-migration rates and vote shares. I find that emigrants have a different distribution of attitudes when compared with natives who remain in their home countries and that vote shares for far-right parties vary with regional out-migration rates.

Author

• Junghyun Lim