Voting Your Pocketbook or Voting Your Place? Decomposing Variance in Voting

• In Event: Elections in the Land of Rising Inequality

Abstract

Many accounts of the rise of political polarization and extremism in advanced industrial democracies focus on political geography. Subnational clustering of voting may indicate that place-based economic factors are an important determinants of political behavior. Using new methodology to decompose variation in voting, we examine whether place-based factors, in addition to pocketbook economic interests, are predictors of individuals' vote choices in Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) data. We measure the left-right orientation and variance in party voting in rich and poor voters in rich and poor regions across our sample. We find strong evidence that place-based factors shape the translation of individual income into vote choice. We document a rightward lean amongst voters of all types in low income regions, but particularly for the rich amongst the poor. We find that living in a rich region predicts significantly more left-leaning party allegiance, including amongst the rich. We find the least vote variance amongst rich people and rich regions and the most amongst the poor regions and poor people. Of all groups, we find the least variance amongst the rich in poor regions regions. Our empirical approach and findings have the potential to launch new research on the place-based effects of voting behavior.

Authors

• Melissa Ziegler Rogers, Claremont Graduate University

• Dong Wook Lee, Adelphi University