Creating Competition: Arms Exports, Tech Transfer, and New Weapons Producers

• In Event: Choose Your Weapon: Political Economy Approaches to Arming

Abstract

Over the past decade the volume of global arms exports has increased to levels not seen since the Cold War. Many long-standing traditional suppliers from that previous era still possess excess production capacity and seek to reduce the costs of their own defense purchases (and the domestic economic programs) through exports. Large importers of arms as varied as Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia, China, and Turkey have vowed to acquire the ability to manufacture their own weapons and eventual export capacity. To advance this cause, importing countries bargain hard with increasingly desperate exporters for technology transfer and local manufacturing when purchasing weapons. Historically, these efforts have usually failed.

To date, there is no systematic analysis of the factors that make arms autarky and eventual export possible. Using a unique data set of arms exports and imports, including level of technology transferred and the use of local manufacturing, we examine whether and how states can joint the small club of arms exporters. Our findings promise to shed light on the economic and political factors that shape the likelihood of arms racing, conventional arms proliferation, and the balance of power in the future.

Author

• Jonathan D. Caverley, Naval War College