Partisan Polarization and Retrospective Voting

• In Event: Political Parties, Perceptions, and Policies

Abstract

Retrospective voting models are based on the premise that economic policies influence both individual and macroeconomic conditions which, in turn, affect voters' perceptions of government performance. However, recent research suggests that voter perceptions of changes in both their individual and macroeconomic conditions have become increasingly polarized along partisan lines (Bartels, 2002; Gerber, Huber and Washington, 2010). If economic perceptions are motivated mostly or entirely by pre-existing partisanship, retrospective voting will be much less effective in promoting democratic accountability. We conduct a survey experiment which shows that the majority of partisan polarization in economic perceptions is a function of the survey context. In particular, respondents taking political surveys exhibit much higher levels of partisan polarization than similar individuals taking market research surveys. Alternatives for improved measurement are also investigated. Implications for the theory of retrospective voting are discussed.

Authors

• Douglas Rivers, Stanford University

• Stephanie A. Nail, Stanford University