The Dynamics of Refugee Return: Syrian Refugees and Their Migration Intentions

• In Event: Forced Displacement, Discrimination, and Pandemic

Abstract

How do refugee crises end? Historical evidence shows that many refugees return home while conflict is ongoing and many choose not to return even after conflict ends. We provide a theory of the drivers of refugees' decision-making, and test it using original survey research with a representative sample of 3,000 Syrian refugees in Lebanon. Results offer strong evidence that conditions in the home country drive refugees' decision-making. For Syrian refugees in our sample, safety conditions in Syria, economic conditions and availability of public services, and personal networks in Syria have a large effect on people's return intentions. Surprisingly, conditions in Lebanon play only a small role in people's decisions. Results highlight the fundamentally humanitarian drivers of refugee migration --- refugees are fleeing violence and persecution, and when threats dissipate, people intend to return home.

Authors

• Daniel Masterson, University of California, Santa Barbara

• Ala Alrababah, ETH Zurich

• Marine Casalis, Immigration Policy Lab - ETH Zurich

• Dominik Hangartner, London School of Economics

• Jeremy M. Weinstein, Stanford University