Religion, Sexual Politics, and Voting Behavior in Latin America

• In Event: Right-Wing Populism and Religion in Latin America

Abstract

Same-sex marriage, abortion, and related sexual politics issues have become major top-
ics of debate in a number of Latin American countries, as liberalizing social trends and
policy initiatives meet with stark opposition from Christian conservatives. Yet existing
research has argued that attitudes on these issues matter little for voting behavior in
the region. In this paper we argue that the degree to which opinions on sexual politics
are predictive of the vote depends on the degree to which a) candidates differ in their
stances, and b) the issue has been politicized via campaigns or legislative battles. When
these conditions are met—as they have been during several recent elections—attitudes
on sexual politics can be as or more influential than more traditional determinants of
voting behavior, such as policies toward crime or the economy. We test this argument
using the 2014, 2016–17, and 2019 waves of the AmericasBarometer; panel studies of
recent presidential elections in Brazil and Costa Rica, which meet both conditions; and
a conjoint experiment conducted in Brazil, Chile, and Peru.

Authors

• Amy Erica Smith, Iowa State University

• Taylor C. Boas, Boston University