Intrastate Conflict and Natural Resources: A Question of Geology?

• In Event: Research in Five (Graduate Students) Session II

Abstract

How do natural resources deposits affect how rebel groups behave in intrastate conflict? I argue that rebel groups use a strategic calculus which includes resource extraction complexity when determining which natural resource deposits to fight over. Although often unaddressed, the extraction process directly affects the ‘lootability’ of a resource as well as the relationship of local, state, and international governments and multinational corporations with the actors that control natural resource deposits. I argue that sedimentary deposits, which pose minor technical complexity and human capital, but are more difficult to exploit than surficial deposits and harder to exploit than igneous or metamorphic deposits, are the most likely sites of violence in intrastate conflict. Using this novel conceptualization of natural resources by geological characteristics, I find support for this hypothesis at the global level using data from the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset and the United States Geological Survey’s Mineral Resource Online Spatial Data. I find further support for the visual analysis in the Democratic Republic of the Congo via an examination of the common average points in polygons (administrative unit) for total violence and deposit type using the same data sources.

Keywords: natural resources, intrastate conflict, spatial data, rebel groups, conflict location

Author

• Christina A Boyes, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas