From Than Shwe to Suu Kyi: Understanding Myanmar's Recent Political Transition

• In Event: Poster Session: Politics and History & International History and Politics
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Politics and History

Abstract

In 2015, one of the world’s longest-standing military dictatorships came to an end. After taking control of Burma in 1962, the military ruled through various different leadership arrangements for the next fifty-three years. Using any means necessary to suppress dissent from both democracy advocates in the country’s center and the various rebel groups inhabiting the country’s fringes, military rule was both brutal and comprehensive. On November 8, 2015, that sustained period of oppression came to an end when the National League for Democracy (NLD) party—led by Suu Kyi—almost swept the country’s first legitimate election in over half a century. The military, to the great surprise of many, accepted these results and allowed the new civilian government to take power in the country now known as Myanmar on April 1, 2016. People rejoiced and reveled in the streets. Often seen as an unbreakable organization with a permanent hold on power, that façade came crashing down as the military took a major step back from direct rule. The Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s armed forces) was not vanquished, but it sustained a serious blow and lost its monopoly on power.
Today, the plight of the almost one million Rohingya Muslims who have been forced to flee Rakhine State dominates international discussion of Myanmar. The brutal campaign enacted by the country’s military has obscured the fact that only a few years ago this Southeast Asian nation was being hailed as a success story and its leader—Aung San Suu Kyi—a world renowned champion of human rights. This recent shift from a fledgling democracy reintegrating into the international community to a widely condemned pariah state is deeply troubling. The optimism surrounding the apparent triumph of democracy has been replaced by criticism and sanctions, leaving many wondering how a once promising country came to perpetrate one of the gravest acts of ethnic cleansing and genocide in recent memory. Properly explaining this situation requires one to first explore the country’s recent history. To explain Aung San Suu Kyi’s transition from an international human rights icon to a sponsor of crimes against humanity, it is vital to understand Myanmar’s transition from a military autocracy to civilian democracy.
Many scholars have attempted to explain this recent political transformation, pointing to a variety of factors such as the threat of political dissent, economic backwardness, and overreliance on China, but a consensus remains elusive. Any attempt to properly analyze this transition must recognize three fundamentally different turning points leading to the NLD’s rise to power. First, one must account for the Tatmadaw’s decision to adopt a roadmap to democracy in 2003 despite its apparent overarching control of the country. Next, the reasoning behind the Tatmadaw’s decision to continue with this roadmap, transfer power to a nominally civilian party in 2011 and permit that party to enact significant reforms needs to be understood. The motivation behind the final step on the roadmap—transferring power to the NLD in 2015—also requires an explanation. The leaders of the military and the factors affecting their actions changed in important ways between each of these decisions, so simply explaining one of these instances fails to actually answer the larger question at hand. An adequate answer must offer a detailed understanding of the variety of influences on the country’s top decision makers during this long process. The country’s economic situation, divisions within the military, international relations, and domestic political circumstances were key elements shaping the Tatmadaw’s choices over the course of this transition.
Accordingly, this paper will seek to provide a detailed account of the current and historical situation in Myanmar and use this to provide an explanation for the country’s recent political change. The first section will explain the extent of the current political change in Myanmar. The next will provide an overview of the some of the most pertinent political, economic, and military developments that occurred between 1990, when the military entrenched its rule by suppressing election results, to 2014, the last full year during which Thein Sein was president and the USDP was the majority party. An analysis of these developments shows that the best explanation for this surprising change comes from contemporary studies of military regimes which suggests that they prioritize continuity of the military over political power. The nature of military regimes, how they approach the issue of political transitions, and specific actions taken by Myanmar’s military after transition all lend support to this conclusion. Thus, the regime willingly choosing to relinquish power in the face of internal divisions and declining legitimacy provides the best explanation for Myanmar’s recent transition from long-time senior general Than Shwe to Suu Kyi.

Author

• Lachlan Drew Woods, Michigan State University