Political Trust: A Natural Experiment Post-2017 Mexico City Earthquake

• In Event: Disaster Politics and Policies in the Americas: New Research

Abstract

Understanding the effects of natural disaster on political trust is important, because trust undergirds legitimacy and shapes behavior. In theory, disasters ought to undermine confidence in public officials because disasters overwhelm state capacity to act efficiently and, in some cases, cast a critical spotlight on the handling of relief funds. Public aid may countervail against such tendencies. Yet, extant evidence is mixed. We enter this discussion with data from a natural experiment, in which an earthquake struck Mexico City as a survey was in progress; two months later we conducted a second study. We find that the earthquake negatively affected political trust across several measures. However, this decrease is offset by the presence of neighborhood distribution centers. The results add to scholarship on the politics of disaster and are important for policy, shedding light on how aid acts as a mechanism to restore trust in public officials following a disaster.

Author

• Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Vanderbilt University