Gambling for Resurrection: Why Islamist Insurgents Form Global Alliances

• In Event: Terror Group Dynamics

Abstract

Why do ostensibly domestic Islamist insurgencies publicly declare allegiance to transnational jihadist organizations? Existing scholarship has either conceptualized local insurgencies as passive “franchises” of global terror groups, or emphasized the material and propaganda gains that accrue to rebel organizations with global ties. However, declarations of transnational ties often issue from the “bottom”, through local groups rather than their transnational senior partners. Further, existing explanations underrate the costs of allying with global terrorist organizations, which threaten to displace the domestic priorities of local insurgents with global agendas, and can provoke powerful countervailing antiterrorist coalitions that threaten local insurgent survival. As such, we lack a convincing explanation of when and why domestic Islamist insurgencies “go global”. I argue that local insurgents' decision to declare allegiance to transnational terror groups is a consequence of leadership contests within insurgent groups, initiated by losses on the battlefield. Battlefield losses often either result in the death of the leader, or a considerable weakening of their internal position, as lower-level lieutenants are emboldened to voice tactical disagreements, threaten to split off and lead independent organizations, or stage outright bids for leadership. Facing immediate insecurity, aspirants to leadership discount the long-term consequences of allying with transnational terrorists in favor of the immediate internal legitimacy benefits. Transnational allegiance is thus a gamble for resurrection. By contrast, Islamist rebels enjoying battlefield gains are more likely to empower nationalist actors and reaffirm domestic aims. To test these arguments, I examine cases of transnational allegiance declarations in Algeria and Nigeria, as well as persistent domestic rebel identity in the case of Hamas in Palestine.

Author

• Sean Paul Ashley, Harvard University