Vote, We Will Provide the Fire Cover:" Ukraine’s Democracy in the Face of War

• In Event: Identity and Attitudes in Times of Political Upheaval

Abstract

The literature shows that personal loss and trauma (Dyrstad 2011), economic stress and social polarization (Collier et al. 2003, Collier 2007), as well as diminution of political and social tolerance (Tir and Singh 2015) all undermine and erode support for democracy in war-affected states. Significant gaps, however, remain in our understanding of the relationship between war exposure and democracy support. To address them, the proposed paper will present an analysis of pooled data from Ukraine National Academy of Sciences (UNAS) public opinion surveys conducted in 2015-2018 (N=7,200). The preliminary finding is that in a democratic state under attack from a militarily stronger authoritarian state, direct exposure reduces support for democratic institutions and values, whereas indirect exposure (through socialization) increases such support. The paper will further investigate this relationship using experimental designs based on oversampling residents in the Donbas areas directly affected by warfighting in 2017 (N=400), an oversampling of the war participants/veterans in 2018 (N=200), and a priming experiment, in which a “treatment group” received a leading statement reminding them of the human and economic costs of the ongoing Donbas war. The paper will also draw on 21 interviews and eight focus group sessions conducted in 2017.

Author

• Mikhail A. Alexseev, San Diego State University