Saving the Census: Assessing Willingness to Participate in the Census

• In Event: Democratic Backsliding and Contracting Minority Suffrage

Abstract

The decennial U.S. Census is intended to generate an accurate count of the population for use in allocating seats in the House of Representatives and distributing federal funds. In March 2018, the Trump administration announced its intention to add a citizenship question to the 2020 Census. While accuracy of the census has been improving over time, multiple organizations immediately expressed concern that the citizenship question might reduce compliance among members of mixed-status households due to fears about the sharing of information about the presence of non-citizen household members with other branches of the federal government, including the Department of Homeland Security. The Supreme Court in June 2019 ruled that the question could not be included; in October and November 2018, while that legal challenge was pending, we worked with three partner organizations within a faith-based non-profit community network to explore how best to encourage compliance with the 2020 Census in hard-to-count populations in Southern California. Using a randomized field experiment with messages delivered using face-to-face canvassers, we find significant evidence that reassurances about the confidentiality of information provided to the Census Bureau can increase intent to participate in some communities.

Authors

• Stephanie L. DeMora, University of California, Riverside

• Melissa R. Michelson, Menlo College