Power, Parity and Proximity

• In Event: Poster Session: International Security II

Abstract

Research debating competing perspectives on power and war has yet to address the endogenous impact of proximity. If power declines in distance, then power relations between two nations differ at different points on the globe. Claims about the impact of parity or preponderance on conflict and peace then really only apply to particular points or regions in the space separating borders or national capitals. We use a formal bargaining model to demonstrate that dyads should be most prone to fight in places where each state’s capabilities, discounted by distance, are roughly at parity. We then assess this relationship empirically, introducing the directed dyad year location unit-of-analysis to capture the impact of geographic distance on power and the propensity to fight. With roughly 1 × 10^11 observations, it is not practical to construct the actual dataset. Instead, we combine all dispute locations with a random sample of non-dispute locations, correcting for bias during estimation. Results confirm that disputes are most likely at locations where the distance-weighted capabilities of nations are roughly equal.

Authors

• Erik Gartzke, UCSD

• Alex Braithwaite, University of Arizona

• Lauren Gilbert