Affective Polarization and Policy Divergence: Persistence and Hysteresis

• In Event: Behavioral Political Economy: Identity

Abstract

The increasing ideological divide among the political elite in American politics over the past 40 years is well documented. Interestingly, there is no conclusive evidence that this is driven by the polarization in ideologies or values at the electorate level. Recent empirical evidence shows, however, that despite relative stability in ideologies, ordinary Republicans and Democrats increasingly dislike each other and treat each other with hostility. This phenomenon could be a cause for the increasing partisanship among the elite, but there is a lack of theoretical understanding of this potential link. The purpose of this project is to fill this gap. We construct a dynamic model of voting and policymaking that allows emotions to play a role in voters’ behavior, while parties are rational and office-motivated. We show that affective polarization at the mass level and elite polarization can be mutually sustaining, and that both low polarization and high polarization steady states are possible. As a result, one may observe hysteresis — a temporary shock leading to a permanent change in polarization. This suggests that the rise in polarization can be traced back to certain salient events such as the end of Cold War.

Authors

• Christopher Miao Li, Florida State University

• Daniel Diermeier, Vanderbilt University