The Impact of Political Apologies on Public Opinion: Survey Experimental Evidence from Japan and the U.S.

• In Event: Nationalism, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy

Abstract

“Apology diplomacy” promises to promote international cooperation by assuaging historical grievances held by foreign publics, yet the same apologies are also criticized for igniting backlash among domestic audiences. We develop a theory of how political apologies affect citizen attitudes in both domestic and foreign contexts and test the implications using large-scale survey experiments in Japan and the U.S., which manipulate apology-making in vignettes invoking WWII-related grievances. We find that apology-making — both as statements acknowledging wrongdoing and expressions of remorse — boosts public approval in the recipient country. However, in the apologizing country, apologies can lead to backlash among those with strong in-group identification — manifested as nationalism, social dominance, and ideological conservatism — or who see less value in bilateral relations between apologizer and recipient. This micro-level evidence reveals how leaders face a tradeoff between improving relations abroad and risking domestic backlash, with important implications for the study of diplomatic communication.

Authors

• Risa Kitagawa, Northeastern University

• Jonathan Art Chu, National University of Singapore