Wargaming and Behavioral Research in IR

Session Submission Type: Full Paper Panel

Session Description

This panel application is a continuation of a series of workshops sponsored by the division at the 2019 APSA Annual Conference meeting. In this panel, we examine the use of wargaming as a tool of scholarly inquiry to provide a new methodological framework for international relations research. The panel explores a variety of wargaming methods including table-top exercises, scenario-based discussions involving policy-making elites, the use of archival material, online experiments and reflects on the potential of these respective settings for research alongside existing survey experiment, game theoretic, and computer-based modeling tools.

The goal of the panel is to both introduce and refine the methodological tools associated with wargaming, evaluate existing efforts by scholars to address pressing international security challenges, and to examine the linkages between wargaming and theoretical questions that might be addressed by this new method. The panel addresses a number of substantive topics in the security studies literature including cyber warfare, nuclear weapons use, and conflict escalation.
Of the four papers included in the panel, two address the methodological concerns of using wargames as a source of evidence for carrying out political science research while two draw on a specific wargame design to address long-held questions in the international relations literature concerning conflict escalation involving nuclear and cyber weapons, respectively. Below, we outline each in turn.

Schneider, Pauly, and Lin-Greenberg survey the design use of data from war games to assess the utility of wargaming as a data generation device within the discipline of security studies. They go on to explore what questions are best examined using wargaming methods and address the similarities and differences between war gaming and other behavioral methodologies—pointing to the unique methodological challenges posed by wargaming data. Bartels also considers the role of wargaming data as part of broader multi-method research designs for causal inference to craft best practices for researchers embarking on the methodological approach.

Valeriano, Jensen, and Whitt use a bespoke wargaming design to examine the processes of conflict escalation in the cyber domain. Reddie, in turn, examines how varying military capabilities might shape conflict escalation using the SIGNAL experimental game design and a series of survey experiments while engaging in a disciplinary discussion concerning how to appropriately measure conflict escalation in behavioral settings.

Sub Unit

• Division 19: International Security

Individual Presentations

• Measuring Conflict Escalation: Evidence from SIGNAL Experiments - Andrew William Reddie, University of California, Berkeley

• Wargaming for Political Science - Jacquelyn Schneider, Stanford University; Reid Pauly, Brown University; Erik Lin-Greenberg, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

• Simulating the Process of Cyber Escalation - Brandon Valeriano, Cato Institute; Benjamin M. Jensen; Sam Whitt, High Point University

• Multi-method Wargaming for IR Research - Elizabeth Bartels, RAND Corporation

Chair

• Vipin Narang Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Discussants

• Peter Dombrowski Naval War College

• Stacie Pettyjohn RAND Corporation