Mapping the Presence and Relationships of Non-State Armed Groups

Session Submission Type: Full Paper Panel

Session Description

A large share of organized violence around the world is driven by territorial competition between non-state armed groups and between them and state authorities. A broad body of literature explains the onset and termination of such violence as the result of the location and type of presence of armed groups, the nature of their governance, their internal structure, and their relative coercive capacity. However, empirical studies of conflict are often hindered by a dearth of quality data on these key attributes of armed organizations. This session presents new ways in which scholars are mapping and using data on a variety of non-state armed actors, from street gangs and drug cartels to terrorists and insurgents.

The first paper in this session combines data on Chicago gang presence, gang alliances across state lines, and changes in gun regulation in neighboring states to evaluate the effect of shocks to relative coercive capacity on gang turf wars and violence. The second paper uses data on weather conditions and battle events in 13 in sub-Saharan African countries to assess how changes in control of territory during civil conflicts influence combatants’ incentives to victimize civilians. The third paper applies machine learning and natural language processing techniques to Arabic-language news stories to generate a geo-referenced database on the presence of non-state armed actors in Afghanistan. The fourth paper introduces the “Mapping Criminal Organizations” project, which synthesizes a vast array of data and combines hand-coding with automated analysis to identify armed group presence and relationships in Mexico.

Sub Unit

• Division 21: Conflict Processes

Individual Presentations

• Civil War, Territorial Change, and Violence Against Civilians - James Igoe Walsh, University of North Carolina, Charlotte; Jacob Aronson, University of Maryland, College Park; Michael Findley, University of Texas, Austin; Kyosuke Kikuta, Japan External Trade Organization

• A Multi-Method Approach to Mapping Criminal Organizations in Mexico - Marco Alcocer, University of California, San Diego; Cecilia Farfan-Mendez, University of California San Diego; Brian J. Phillips, University of Essex; Víctor Manuel Sánchez Valdés, Universidad Autónoma de Coahuila; Patrick Joseph Signoret, Princeton University; Fernanda Sobrino, University of Chicago

• Turf War or Alliance: Gun Control and Power Shocks Among Chicago Criminal Gangs - Elena Barham, Columbia University; Sarah Zukerman Daly, Columbia University

• Tracking Non-State Armed Actors in Afghanistan Using ML and NLP in Arabic - Javier Osorio, University of Arizona

Chair

• Matthew D. Simonson University of Pennsylvania

Discussant

• Omar Garcia-Ponce George Washington University