Global Supply Chains, Asymmetrical Dependence, and International Conflict

• In Event: International Political Economy Virtual Poster Session

Abstract

Trade in intermediate goods that flow through global supply chains (GSCs) undermine the mainstream liberal and realist camps of the economic interdependence and state behavior literature. In this study, I align with the third camp of analytically eclectic accounts of the relationship between interdependence and state behavior, provide a reconceptualization of interdependence through intermediate goods trade, and propose a set of typologies on integration and production profiles of countries to identify different mechanisms that influence the likelihood of cooperation and conflict. Treating intermediate good flow asymmetry as a measure of vulnerability, I show that asymmetrical dependence in some production domains create sources of vulnerability and coercion for countries integrated into GSCs. Asymmetrical dependence in complex production domains increases the likelihood of conflict, and in simple production domains does not lead to variation in conflict or cooperation. However, interdependence in either production domain leads to cooperation. These outcomes are explained by the likelihood of (1) mutually assured welfare loss in the future, (2) unilateral welfare loss in the future, and (3) absence of unilateral welfare loss in the future.

Author

• Nazim Uras Demir, University of California, Irvine