The Effects of Voter-Party Incongruence on Affective Polarization (Pre-Recorded)

• In Event: Reconsidering Polarization

Abstract

How does voter-party incongruence on policy issues impact affective evaluations of mainstream political parties and their leaders? Research on the relationship between ideology and affective polarization suggests that ideological disagreement is a key driver of animosity between partisan groups. By operationalizing disagreement on the left-right ideological dimension, however, existing studies mostly overlook voter-party incongruence as a potential determinant of affective polarization. We build on this work by exploring the effect of incongruence between parties and voters on affective evaluations in the lead up to the 2019 UK General Election. Consistent with our expectations, we find that voter-party incongruence, especially on issues salient to voters, has a significant impact on affective evaluations. Perceived representational gaps between party and voter drive negative evaluations of the in-party and positive evaluations of the opposition, thus lowering affective polarization overall. In our analysis, voter-party incongruence is in fact a stronger predictor of how partisans evaluate their own party leader than strength of partisan identity. The results offer a more nuanced perspective on the role of ideological disagreement and partisanship in driving affective polarization.

Author

• Nahema Marchal, University of Zurich