Religion and Populism: Theory and Evidence from the Philippines and Beyond

• In Event: Is Religion the Blind Spot of Populism?

Abstract

Despite increased interest in populism and religion in comparative politics, scholars are only beginning to account for religion’s role in populist mobilization. We use the critical case of Rodrigo Duterte’s Philippines to derive a preliminary typology of this interaction. Building on existing scholarship, we highlight how religious groups may (1) buttress populist definitions of “the people” and (2) support populism’s personalistic political strategy. We then advance existing scholarship by theorizing potential sources of religious constraint on populist politics. To evaluate these distinct pathways of support and opposition, we turn to systematic subnational data from the Philippines. Our original dataset connects religious demographics across over 40,000 Philippine subdistricts with Duterte’s vote share in his landmark 2016 election victory. Results indicate that religious communities whose elites most enthusiastically supported Duterte’s populist project did indeed vote more strongly for his election, while sources of elite religious opposition to populism from the country’s Catholic Church corresponds with a negative relationship between Duterte’s voteshare and the presence of Catholics in the local population. Focused out-of-sample case studies of India, Brazil and Poland raise confidence that these pathways generalize.

Author

• David T. Buckley, University of Louisville