Policy Mood in the Developing World: Evidence from Uruguay.

• In Event: Political Preferences and Public Opinion in Comparative Perspective

Abstract

The dynamics of aggregate public opinion -particularly Stimson´s (1991) measure of policy mood- have been long used to explain electoral outcomes and government responsiveness in the US. However, we still know little about policy mood outside the US and some European countries. Understanding the relationship between policy and electoral preferences in the Latin American context is crucial as Latin American voters are often depicted as outcome oriented. This paper aims to fill this gap by estimating Uruguayans´ policy mood between 1995-2019, using 54 questions and 195 different surveys. Firstly, we contrast the policy mood measure with vote intention series, testing whether Uruguayans policy preferences are correlated with their vote choice. This is particularly interesting given that the 1995-2019 period in Uruguay saw significant changes in incumbents´ ideology and several policy areas such as income redistribution, healthcare, abortion and gay marriage. Furthermore, we explore the relationship between policy preferences, symbolic ideology and affective polarization. In line with Ellis and Stimson´s (2012) distinction between symbolic (identification with liberals or conservatives) and operational ideology (policy positions), we argue that these two concepts -often regarded as the same- are different phenomena with different trends over time. Lastly, we test if ideological polarization (operational and symbolic) occurred in Uruguay and whether it implied affective polarization (negative feelings towards opposite parties). Overall, this article contributes to the scarce literature of aggregate public opinion measures of policy preferences, ideology and political preferences in Latin America.

Authors

• Eliana Álvarez, Universidad Católica del Uruguay

• Martín Opertti, Universidad Católica del Uruguay

• Rosario Queirolo, Universidad Católica del Uruguay