How Terrorist Attacks Affect the Religiosity of Survivors: Evidence from Africa

• In Event: Religion and Violence

Abstract

How do terrorist attacks affect the religiosity of survivors? Studies consider the consequences of terrorism on outcomes such as voting behavior, economic wellbeing, and psychological resilience, but little is known about how terrorism affects the religious preferences of those living in proximity to attacks. This is puzzling given the objective of many global terrorist groups to transform the religio-political environment. The research that does address the question—frequently following the exceptional case of the September 11 attacks in the United States—is divided between the perspective that terrorism sullies religion more generally and the perspective that attacks create anxiety that religion is well-placed to address. Others suggest that post-attack fears of attending religious services may undermine religious practice even as religiosity remains strong.

This study adds new perspective by examining a context of numerous, repeated terrorist attacks. Building on Norris and Inglehart (2004), we argue that terrorism creates a form of existential insecurity among nearby survivors that intensifies religious attachments, not in spite of people’s fears but because of them. Using georeferenced data that link over 90,000 survey respondents in both time and space to approximately 15,000 terrorist attacks in Africa, we determine changes in religious attendance and religious importance based on the individuals’ proximity to attacks. Accounting for the potential nonrandom location of those attacks, we show that proximity to terrorism drives up both religiosity and religious attendance. The effects are strong among both Muslim and Christian respondents and persist for up to approximately 12 months and 75 kilometers from attacks. Regarding the mechanism, the results indicate that in the aftermath of attacks, fears spike and trust in political leadership declines, both of which suggest a rise in existential insecurity that survivors address by placing faith in the divine.

The study is the first that we are aware of to connect terrorist attacks to individual-level preferences with this degree of geographic precision. We also add theoretical insight regarding the consequences of ongoing exposure to terrorist attacks, in a context in which terrorist threats continue to increase. From a practical perspective, the results underscore the important role that religious leaders and institutions play in shepherding survivors through the post-attack period.

Authors

• Trey Billing, The Ohio State University

• John F. McCauley, University of Maryland, College Park