Who Voted How? Examining the Determinants of Turnout in 2020

• In Event: Making It Easier to Vote

Abstract

In this paper, we explore how people decided to cast their vote (i.e., by mail, early in person, on Election Day) during the 2020 general election. Relying on an original panel survey of more than 5,000 respondents interviewed over three waves during the fall campaign, we examine the impact of five sets of factors: (1) state-level factors (e.g., experience with mail voting, number of days for early voting; (2) demographic characteristics of respondents (e.g., race and ethnicity, education; (3) political characteristics of respondents (e.g., political knowledge); (4) psychological characteristics of respondents (e.g., level of authoritarianism, conspiracy thinking); (5) campaign related factors (e.g., polarization regarding feelings towards the opposing candidates, negativity of the campaign). We find that state-level factors do influence people’s reliance on convenience voting. For example, in states where it’s easier to vote by mail, where there is more experience with mail voting and where there is no early in-person voting, people are significantly more likely to vote by mail than vote on Election Day. Similarly, in states with more early voting days, people are significantly more likely to vote early than on Election Day. We also find different types of people preferring convenience voting to Election Day voting, with Republicans being more likely to prefer voting on November 3rd, compared to voting by mail. We also find that older people, women, and people who are more concerned with Covid-19 are more likely to vote early (either by mail or in person) than on Election Day. Finally, we find that people who score higher on the authoritarian child-rearing scale and people who are more likely to engage in conspiracy thinking are significantly more likely to vote in person on November 3rd and less likely to vote early – either in person or by mail. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for expanding the electorate and maintaining access to the ballot box in future elections, post Covid-19.

Authors

• Kim L. Fridkin, Arizona State University

• Patrick Kenney, Arizona State University