Reverse Exodus: A Study of the Return Intentions of Conflict Displaced Persons

• In Event: Conflict Processes 2 Virtual Poster Session

Abstract

Scholars posit that a more sustainable way to rebuild communities devastated by conflict is for fleeing members of the community to return voluntarily. The factors that influence the voluntary return of those forcefully displaced by conflict is generally classified into four major categories: security (Hoogeveen, Rossi, & Sansone, 2018), types of perceived victimization (Arias, Ibáñez, & Querubin, 2014; Cordero 2002), social networks (Omata, 2013), and economic opportunities and access to public goods (Rogge & Lippman, 2004). The underlying assumption in all these theories is that all potential returnees have equal access to credible information about their area of origin or place of habitual residence. But, the high uncertainty surrounding conflict events makes it extremely difficult for the assumption to hold. Therefore, the underlying assumption needs further scrutiny.

Thus, there are fundamentally unanswered questions: Does information matter globally with respect to displaced persons' likelihood to return? How and under what conditions will information influence their return intentions? This study aims to answer these questions. In this paper, I develop and test theory about the role of uncertainty with a survey experiment in northeastern Nigeria. My project is building upon Walsh et al. (2019) study of displaced persons in Mosul, Iraq, which suggests that information is critical in influencing the return intentions of those forcefully displaced by violence.

Author

• Peter Onah Thompson, University of North Carolina at Charlotte