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Right-wing populism has increased steadily across the European continent and beyond. People-centrism is a defining feature of populism, and right-wing populists in Europe have assumed a nativist approach to what constitutes ‘the people’. This means that they define ‘the people’ as those who are born in the country and those who adhere to traditional native values and religions. By definition, this excludes groups of citizens who are born abroad or adhere to other religions. It is to be expected that such individuals feel left out, or even discriminated against by right-wing populist parties. According to the rejection-identification model, this can have profound effects. If citizens that belong to a minority group feel discriminated against, they might reject the majority group altogether and adhere more importance to their minority identity. In this case, the nativist ideology of right-wing populist parties might become a self-fulfilling prophecy: the homogenous conception of ‘the people’ is perceived as discrimination amongst those who do not fit in, which leads them to identify less with the ‘the people’.
In this paper, I analyze the effects of exposure to nativist or inclusive political parties in the news during a national election, on the level of national identification of those who fit as compared to those who are excluded from nativist ideas of ‘the people’. I combine three datasets. The Austrian National Election Study surrounding the Austrian parliamentary election of 15 October 2017 (AUTNES 2017) provides a panel survey study of a large and representative sample of Austrian citizens, in which they report measures of ethnicity, religion, as well as news use. Moreover, two waves include participants’ national identification. The AUTNES 2017 project also provides a comprehensive content analysis of the biggest eight national newspapers of Austria, during the time period between these two waves. This content analysis includes the visibility of each political party. Finally, the Chapel Hill Expert Survey provides information about the level of nativism of each of Austria’s political parties. Combining these three sources enables us to approximate the amount of exposure to nativist parties in the news of each participant in the panel data. This way, we can test the effect of such exposure on the change in national identification between the two waves, for majority members, as well as for those who are excluded by nativist ideology.
Initial analyses suggest that there is a significant interaction between being excluded from the nativist ideal and exposure to nativist political discourse. It seems that exposure to nativist parties does not affect majority group members’ national identification. However, the national identities of citizens in excluded groups are affected considerably. When exposed to a lot of nativist parties in the news, their national identity increases less than natives’, while the opposite occurs for those who are exposed to inclusive parties in the news. This effect is robust to controlling for different demographics and political variables.