Assessing Regime Transformation as Episodes of Democratization & Autocratization

• In Event: Conceptualizing and Measuring Democracy and Democratic Backsliding

Abstract

Gradual processes of democratization and autocratization have gained increased attention in the literature. Assessing such processes in a comparative framework remains a challenge due to their under-conceptualization and a bifurcation of the democracy and autocracy literatures. This paper addresses these issues by providing a new conceptualization of regime transformation and introducing a dataset that captures 680 unique episodes of regime transformation (ERT) from 1900 to 2019. We broadly conceptualize regime transformation as substantial and sustained changes in democratic institutions and practices in either direction. Such transformations, while meaningfully altering the democratic quality of the regime, only produce a regime transition in about 32% of the episodes we identify. The other episodes either did not have the potential for such a transition (i.e. constituted further democratization in democratic regimes or further autocratization in autocratic regimes) or the regime transformation process ended before a transition took place. We discuss empirical outcomes occurring in those cases that could have transitioned but failed to do so, providing novel insights into how regimes have transformed over the past 120 years and illustrating the value of developing a unified framework for studying regime transformation.

Author

• Amanda B. Edgell, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa