China's Public and the Bomb: Evidence on Norms and the Nuclear Threshold

• In Event: Public Audiences as Constraints on Foreign Policymaking

Abstract

Is there a normative taboo among Chinese citizens against the use of nuclear weapons? Under what conditions would China’s public support or oppose the use of nuclear weapons? In accounting for the absence of nuclear conflict since the United States used nuclear weapons on Japan in World War II, scholars argue that there exists a “nuclear taboo” or normative prohibition against the use of nuclear weapons. Recent scholarship investigates whether this nuclear taboo exists at the public level. However, little is known about public attitudes regarding the use of nuclear weapons beyond American borders, in non-Western contexts, and in authoritarian regimes. To examine whether and under what conditions China’s public might support or oppose the use of nuclear weapons, we use a survey experiment involving a hypothetical scenario of a conflict over a territorial dispute. The findings from this analysis contribute to scholarly and policy debates on the role of norms and public opinion nuclear weapons policies, as well as debates about the pressures and motives shaping Chinese nuclear doctrine.

Authors

• Lincoln Hines, US Air War College

• Naomi Egel, Cornell University