The Citizen and the State in a Changing Climate

• In Event: Living with the Consequences of Climate Change

Abstract

How do changes in the natural world affect the stability of state-society relations? This question is growing in urgency given slow multilateral progress on climate change mitigation. We argue that weather extremes degrade the relationship between citizen and state if they reveal damaging information about the state’s priorities or infrastructural capacity. When states prioritise citizen welfare and have high capacity they are better able to insulate citizens from the economic and security effects of climatic extremes. In contrast, failure to protect citizens from these effects implies either parochialism or a lack of capacity on the part of the state. The former gives rise to new grievances while the latter reveals vulnerability that can be exploited by citizens. We develop a game theoretic model and test its predictions using geocoded data on climate, public, opinion, electoral outcomes, and armed conflict. We find strong support for our claims across political and geographic settings.

Authors

• Amanda Kennard, New York University

• Carlos Felipe Balcazar, New York University