Ex-Combatant Demobilization and Support for Peace: Quasi-Experiment in Colombia

• In Event: Political Violence in Democracies

Abstract

How does the demobilization and reintegration of ex-combatants shape the attitudes of civilians in receptor communities? Although demobilization is a positive step toward peace, absorbing new populations of combatants can exacerbate fears about the former fighters, put strain on local service provision, and create tensions with host communities. We examine the effect of combatant demobilization on attitudes toward peace and reconciliation using a quasi-experiment in Colombia. As part of the peace process with the FARC rebel group, 26 municipalities were selected as sites for demobilization (ZVTN municipalities). We analyze attitudes from individuals in the ZVTN municipalities alongside a sample of similar municipalities that did not host ex-combatants. Because the ZVTN municipalities were selected non-randomly, we use a matching approach to identify the comparison municipalities. Because the matching approach imperfectly balances the treatment and control municipalities in some cases, we supplement the matching approach with a difference-in-differences analysis drawing on pre-post data from a baseline survey (from prior to the peace agreement) and midline/endline data (from after the agreement). The goal is to examine changes in attitudes from prior to the establishment of demobilization (dejación de armas) camps to the post-accord period for various outcomes, including reconciliation, provision of public services, security and trust, illicit crops, and overall support for the peace process. For many of the categories we observe no differences between treatment and control at endline, relative to the differences at baseline. In some cases, such as public services, security and trust, and beliefs in divine protection, there are some noticeable differences.

Authors

• Michael Findley, University of Texas, Austin

• Joseph K. Young, American University

• Oliver Kaplan, University of Denver