Incremental or Transformative? The Effect of Civil War on Institutional Change

• In Event: Post-Conflict Institutional Structures

Abstract

Does civil war have an effect on institutional change? Some scholars posit that we should expect to see transformative, as opposed to incremental, changes following such a large event. Because civil war by definition occurs between two or more actors attempting to disrupt the status quo, we examine the effect of civil war on constitutional change - the institution responsible for structuring a nation state's status quo. We expect to observe transformative constitutional changes \textit{if} the civil war terminates with a victor whose legal preferences for governance are not embodied by the remaining constitution. Moreover, we expect continuity of these changes to be dependent on whether the victor maintains law-making powers. If the victor and loser have divergent legal preferences, but the loser gains law-making powers in the post-civil war period, then we expect to observe an endogenous rupture to the remaining constitution. To examine our theoretical argument and explore the causal mechanism we leverage original data on state constitutions before and after the American Civil War (1776-1901). Preliminary evidence supports our theoretical argument.

Authors

• Liana Eustacia Reyes, Rice University

• Keith E. Hamm, Rice University

• Nancy Martorano Miller, University of Dayton

• Ronald D. Hedlund, Northeastern University