Latinos, Trump, and Biden: Assessing the Latino Vote in 2020

• In Event: Latinxs in the 2020 Presidential Election

Abstract

This paper will examine Latino support for Trump and Biden in 2020, specifically studying the role of key Latino subgroups. While many observers and activists expected the Latino vote to strongly support Biden and power a Blue Wave, initial indicators suggest Latinos more strongly supported Trump in 2020 than in 2016. We also see evidence that such gains for Trump were more than localized effects in Miami and South Texas. Understanding the Latino vote in this election, and how it compares to the 2016 campaign, is crucial to understanding not only the nature of Latino political diversity but also assessing 'demography is destiny' claims. The paper also expands on our recent Social Science Quarterly article and Monkey Cage piece, which found greater Latino support for Trump in 2016 than was generally expected. In addition, we noted that Trump improved upon Romney among key groups, specifically Protestant, low income, and third generation Latinos. Whether such subgroup dynamics continued into 2020, and how other Latino subgroups supported Trump and Biden, will be studied in our new paper. We will examine the 2020 and 2016 American National Election Study, Pew’s 2020 and 2016 National Survey of Latinos, the 2020 and 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, and various media polls.

Authors

• David L. Leal, University of Texas at Austin

• Alvaro Jose Corral, The College of Wooster