Fear of Electoral Violence, Urban Geography, and Democratic Participation

• In Event: Evaluating Electoral Violence

Abstract

Electoral violence remains a serious concern in many African democracies. While violence exists
in both urban and rural settings, violence particularly affects the political lives of Africa’s urban
populations. According to the latest round of the Afrobarometer, 76% of urban Zambians fear
becoming a victim of political violence during elections. Violence is a tool of political exclusion
and domination, as political actors use it to control space and change the political behavior of
citizens. While urban Africa has been known for democratic vitality, political competition, and
higher levels of volatility, violence has the potential to curb meaningful political participation
and reinforce political inequalities.
In this pre-analysis plan, we outline the theory, hypotheses, and research design of a new
project on the electoral geography of election violence fear in urban Zambia. We particularly
study the way in which specific categories of voters become politically excluded due to their
fear of violence. We hypothesize that local majorities use violence as a tool to control space
and limit democratic participation by local minorities. While previous election violence research
has acknowledged violence as a tool to limit electoral turnout, we here conceptualize
participation much more broadly and hypothesize that violence most notably restricts forms of
visible democratic participation, such as attending campaign rallies, participating in political
campaigns, or participating in political discourse. As such, violence serves as a tool to create
local political hegemony and reinforce political exclusion by de-mobilizing marginalized groups.
We detail the research design of two survey experiments and observational survey data
collection in Zambia’s three major urban areas: Lusaka, the Copperbelt (Ndola and Kitwe), and
Livingstone. The three cities vary in competitiveness and political leanings. We explain how we
combine survey data with ward-level census data to analyze how individual-level characteristics
interact with local-level political, social, and economic conditions to shape citizens individual-
level fear of political participation and their resulting dis-engagement from political life.

Authors

• Inken von Borzyskowski, University College London (UCL)

• Michael Wahman, Michigan State University