Teaching Forecasting Without Teaching Methods

• In Event: Political Forecasting: Teaching and Practice

Abstract

Election forecasting has become the centerpiece of media coverage of elections. Yet for all the attention paid to forecasting, public understanding of forecasting remains low and distrust has increased. We can improve citizen knowledge and comprehension, and increase student engagement, by teaching students how to forecast. However, the complex methodology associated with forecasting leads many to be hesitant to introduce it in introductory level courses. In this paper, I outline strategies on how to teach forecasting and have students produce their own forecasts without teaching them quantitative methods. This pedagogical approach gives students the hands-on learning they need to understand the intuitions behind forecasting and in doing so, produces informed, competent citizens.

Author

• Debra Lynn Leiter, University of Missouri-Kansas City