Myopia or Accountability? The Electoral Effects of Mass Trauma by Event Type

• In Event: Election Violence

Abstract

Trauma and traumatic events are increasingly prevalent features of the American political landscape. The Black Lives Matter movement, #MeToo, and the Covid-19 pandemic make clear that the effects of trauma disproportionately impact racial-ethnic minorities, women, immigrants, and LGBTQ+ individuals. And yet, the political consequences of these events remain understudied. While traumatic events once initiated rally-around-the-flag mainstreaming effects for elected officials, many nationalized events demonstrate the polarizing nature of certain trauma-exposing events. While past research is divided on myopic retrospective rationality amongst the American public, no studies have yet examined the differential electoral consequences of different types of traumatic events and how parties structure this response.

In this study, I create a schema of traumatic events that theorizes differential levels of electoral damage to incumbents contingent upon the likelihood of an events inducing post-traumatic stress and post-traumatic growth responses. Using time series cross-sectional data paired with an original conjoint experiment on the CCES, I then test this theory. In particular, I isolate and measure the causal effect of type of traumatic event, elected official response, and the social identity of the elected official on electoral chances. I find that voters do not exhibit myopic retrospective rationality, instead punishing elected officials in line with the types of traumatic event and the government’s reasonable ability to either prevent the event or lessen its costs. Further, partisanship structures this response and interacts with the social identity of elected officials. Democrats are more likely to blame officials for mass shooting events and hurricanes than are Republicans, while Republicans’ are more likely to blame Black, Latinx, and female elected officials than White, Asian, and male elected officials.

Author

• Wayde ZC Marsh, University of Notre Dame