Forecasting the 2021 Federal German election : A SUR Political Economy Model

• In Event: Forecasting the 2021 German Federal Election

Abstract

In Germany, as political economy models tend to show, national election results are highly linked to the economic situation, maybe more than in the other western democracies. Correlatively, the economic performance is partly attributed to the incumbent coalitions. However, since 1998 even if economy still strongly matters, the electoral power of hinge parties such as the FDP, the Greens or recently the AFD, makes or breaks majorities.
Forecasts issued from our political economy provided satisfactory results in 1998, predicting Helmut Kohl’s defeat. On the other hand, in 2002 the same model gave disappointing results. The main problem was the model did not include the credibility of the Greens or the Free Democrats. This improvement helped us to forecast well the likelihood of a grand coalition SPD-CDU in 2005 and Angela Merkel’s reelection in 2009.
In 2013 and 2017, face to the comeback of coalitions, a SUR model is used in order to forecast the respective weight of classic incumbent parties (SPD and CDU-CSU), hinge parties (Green party and FDP) and purely protest parties (Linkspartei). This model successfully predicted twice Angela Merkel would led, once again, a grand coalition with the SPD.
In view of the forthcoming 2021 election we renew the experience trying to take into account a new political situation, namely the robustness of AfD, the fragility of FDP and overall, the upsurge of the Greens (Die Grünen) today capable of surpassing the SPD.

Authors

• Bruno Jerome, University of Paris II Pantheon Assas

• Veronique Jerome, University of Paris XI-Sud Orsay

• Michael S. Lewis-Beck, University of Iowa