Why Do Some Rebel Groups Target Communication Infrastructure and Others Do Not?

• In Event: Economic Sanctions and Economic Costs

Abstract

Although many aspects of the relationship between Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and Conflict are under investigation, little or no attention is paid to the deliberate targeting of telecommunication infrastructure by rebel groups. There is variation in rebel groups’ strategies: While some of these are systematically targeting communications, others try to protect the infrastructure (or even threaten companies to provide communication services). In this study, I try to investigate (i) variation between rebel groups in targeting communication infrastructure, and (ii) the spatial variation within groups that are targeting telecommunications, by exploiting GTD (START 2019) and UCDP data (Pettersson and Oberg 2020) with help of Terrorism in Armed Conflict data project (Fortna et al. 2020). I argue that rebel groups adapt their strategies with a cost-benefits approach, and to avoid detection and being targeted, they are more likely to target telecommunication infrastructure when they face a government with a relatively stronger and more sophisticated military. I also test alternative explanations such as ruggedness of terrain, ideology of the rebel group and conflict start date. Regarding spatial variation within groups that are targeting telecommunications, drawing upon theories of rebel governance and territorial control, I argue that while rebel groups are more likely to target ICT infrastructure in contested territory, they are expected to protect it in the territory under their control. In contested territories, their main aim in targeting the communication infrastructure is to disrupt the information flow between the local population and the government. I test these arguments with a subnational study to observe territorial contestation and control. Certain patterns in the data may also lead future studies to focus on temporal variance in attacks to telecommunications as a good predictor of large scale attacks in the following days.

Author

• Mehmet Erdem Arslan, University of Essex