Crafting the Message: The Data Science of Presidential Elections

• In Event: Election Campaign Strategies

Abstract

The spread of social media and data analytics have had a profound impact on the measurements of social interactions. While numerous studies look at the effects of new technologies on political campaigns, little is known about the ways in which data science is influencing the message that presidential candidates put forward. This research addresses this lacuna and investigates how the political strategists and campaign operatives’ usages of big data analytics are affecting the production of the candidates’ messages in a period of accentuated polarization. Drawing on in-depth interviews with high-profile political strategists, observations of their professional meetings, and computational text analysis of the election documents they produced, I find that the cultural practices of presidential campaigns around big data analytics are critically shifting: While data science techniques were mostly used for voter mobilization, they are now substantially affecting both the content and the form of the candidates’ messages. The need to adapt the content of the messaging to the platforms on which the political communication happens is subsequently contributing to a change in the tonality of the political discourse in the United States.

Theoretically, this research enhances our understanding of the use of data analytics and data science in presidential campaigns during unsettled cultural periods—wherein new styles and strategies of action emerge as a result of repeated norm violations. It is, first and foremost, a study about a transformation of political repertoires and communication practices used in presidential elections. It is also a sociological study of political operatives and the work they engage in as they craft their candidate’s message over issues of equity and inclusivity, as well as unity spanning across socioeconomic and racial boundaries. It thereby enriches the literature on political messaging, and tangentially, the building of the candidate’s persona.

Not only does this paper contribute to the literatures on repertoire change, political operatives, and different facets of political persuasion, but it also bears empirical and methodological significance as well. Empirically, it overcomes prior data access issues and presents a uniquely comprehensive data on the cultural work that political consultants, strategists, and campaign operatives undertake throughout the electoral cycle. It thus provides a systematic analysis of the work of an understudied yet important population that partakes in the political culture of the digital age.

Methodologically, it presents a mixed-method approach to understand how data science affects the ways in which the messages of presidential candidates get crafted. It combines qualitative analyses that rely on semi-structured interviews and participant observations with quantitative examinations that validate the self-reports of practices in the field of political campaigning. The text analysis more specifically documents the variations of tonality of the political discourse across time and speaks to the evolution of strategies that political professionals have put forward.

Author

• Bo Yun Park, Harvard University