The Authoritarian Turnout Gap: Pro-Regime Mobilization in Russia

• In Event: Elections Under Autocracy

Abstract

In most electoral autocracies, regime supporters turn out at much higher rates than opposition supporters. This gap gives incumbents a built-in electoral advantage. Several scholars have recognized this turnout gap, but there are relatively few attempts to examine it empirically. Using survey data from six national and 35 regional elections in Russia, the paper explores the underpinnings of this turnout gap by examining variation in pro-regime turnout across electoral contexts. Why do regime supporters turnout at high rates in droves in some settings, but stay home in other settings? The paper tests a series of hypotheses about how the competitiveness of elections, electoral fraud, perceptions of regime performance, feelings of patriotism, and partisan mobilization affect turnout among regime supporters. The results promise to shed light on the sources of incumbency advantage in electoral authoritarian regimes.

Author

• Ora John Reuter, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee