A New Electoral Geography?

• In Event: Realignment? How Brexit Reshaped British Voting Behaviour

Abstract

In this paper we ask whether the Brexit shock has brought about a new electoral geography. Critical elections theory links fundamental changes in electoral geography to realignment. In 2019 we saw a large-scale shift in the geography of support for the major parties, with Labour losing many of its ‘red wall’ seats to the Conservatives, especially those which voted strongly for Brexit. At the same time Labour strengthened its dominant position in the Remain leaning metropolitan heartlands, associated with its new ‘cosmopolitan’ support base. In this paper we provide a detailed examination of how the geography of support – at constituency and regional level - has changed over time, and the extent to which the new electoral map reflects the geography of Brexit.

The changing electoral geography had its roots well before the referendum in 2016 and while the changing electoral geography does reflect long-term geographical changes in support for the major parties, we show that Brexit acted as a catalyst, bringing about changes to the geography of party support which reflected the Leave-Remain divide. This was evident in 2017 when Labour gained ground in pro-remain areas while Conservatives performed better in Leave areas, and in 2019 when Labour lost support disproportionately in seats that most strongly voted Leave. We examine four inter-related questions. (i) How does the current geography of support compare with pre-referendum geography of support? (ii) Did the referendum mark a change in the regional basis of support? (iii) Has there been a differential change in the relationship between socio-economic characteristics and partisanship by region or are geographical changes independent of other cleavages? (iv) How far do changes in support reflect long-term changes in socio-economic structure or a Brexit effect?

Authors

• Edward A. Fieldhouse, University of Manchester

• Jack Bailey, The University of Manchester

• Jane Green, Nuffield College