The Changing Population of Donors

• In Event: Measuring Political Preferences

Abstract

Why do citizens start donating to campaigns? Why do donors expand their contributions to different races? Why do donors stop donating? Using latent class analysis and latent profile analysis, I classify donors (and non-donors) into different types according to their donation behavior (which campaigns and how many campaigns they donate to) and how much they donate. I then use hidden Markov models (latent transition analysis) to analyze when donors move from one donor type to another type: for example, when a presidential donor starts donating to congressional campaigns, or when a party donor stops donating altogether. Using a panel survey of US citizens, I examine the characteristics and motivations of new donors, continuing donors, and lapsed donors. As campaigns mobilize more donors through social media and tools like ActBlue, I assess the probable change in the population of donors and how it will affect candidates, parties, and political organizations.

Author

• Jay Goodliffe, Brigham Young University