Trends in Political Polarization During Disease Outbreaks from Polio to COVID-19 (Pre-Recorded)

• In Event: Beyond COVID-19: The Influence of Infectious Diseases on Public Health Policy (Pre-Recorded)

Abstract

Studies have documented a wide, persistent difference between Republicans and Democrats in their attitudes and behaviors regarding COVID-19, but none have placed this finding in historical context. Without information on partisan differences during past disease outbreaks, it is unclear whether political polarization is a common phenomenon of pandemics, especially in election years, or whether the magnitude of disagreement between Democrats and Republicans during COVID-19 can be considered an outlier.

In this paper, I report results from an original analysis of archival survey data collected during emerging disease outbreaks over the past 67 years, examining partisan divisions on measures of concern about possible infection and intention to receive a vaccine. Drawing upon data from more than 100 surveys conducted between 1954 and 2021, I measure the distance between Republicans and Democrats across 11 emerging disease outbreaks: polio, H2N2, H1N1 (1976), HIV/AIDS, anthrax, SARS, H5N1, H1N1 (2009), Ebola, Zika, and COVID-19.

I find that stark partisan differences are not endemic to all disease outbreaks, even those that occur in election years. However, political polarization during COVID-19, as it pertains to concerns about infection and vaccine intentions, appears to be substantially greater than any other emerging disease outbreak in modern American history. I conclude by discussing the implications of these findings for the future of the pandemic.

Author

• Caitlin McMurtry, Harvard University