Substitution Patterns in the 2020 Democratic Primaries

• In Event: Forecasting Elections

Abstract

We use stated ranked-choice information from surveys to estimate substitution patterns in the 2020 Democratic primaries. We provide reduced form evidence that candidate ideology played an important role in influencing voters' choices. We then estimate a structural discrete choice model of candidate choice to investigate how candidates' ideological locations affect substitution patterns and the dynamics of voters' preferences. We compare how well our approach forecasts future election results to an approach that omits candidate and voter ideology.

Authors

• Brendan Pablo Montagnes, Emory University

• Sergio Montero, University of Rochester

• Zachary F. Peskowitz, Emory University