Can China Fight? Assessing the Battlefield Effectiveness of the PLA

• In Event: Social Organization in Regular and Irregular Armed Forces

Abstract

One of the most important debates about international politics today is the extent to which a power transition is underway between China and the United States. Raw power, however, is not synonymous with effectiveness on the battlefield. China has invested enormous resources in updating and reforming the People's Liberation Army, but the question remains: Can China fight (and win)? This article draws a range of metrics from the multidisciplinary literature on battlefield effectiveness and measures them using both Chinese-language sources and outside evaluations, in order to perform a comprehensive net assessment of the PLA's fighting power. Illustrating the implications of our assessment in a scenario of conflict between the US and China over Taiwan, we argue that China's battlefield effectiveness has improved far more slowly than many believe. The PLA's equipment upgrades, reorganizations, and improvements in training are still outweighed by obstacles stemming from corruption, domestic politics, and a lack of fighting experience. China remains a long way from catching up with the US both in terms of raw power and in terms of its ability to apply that power effectively on the battlefield.

Authors

• Eric Hundman, NYU Shanghai

• Jennifer M. Lind, Dartmouth College