Ethnicity and Defection During Uprisings from Below

• In Event: Social Organization in Regular and Irregular Armed Forces

Abstract

Studies of defection dynamics frequently assert that ethnic ties between security forces andchallenger groups make defections from the security forces more likely. Case study evidencefrom Mali to Togo to Syria appears to lend support to this argument. However, no cross-nationalevidence has yet been presented to corroborate this theory. This paper leverages new data on theethnic composition of militaries to evaluate how patterns of representation and discriminationshape dynamics of loyalty. Examining violent and nonviolent mass uprisings across Africaand the Middle East since 1946, we show that the likelihood of defections increases with theshare of the military forces made up of members of ethnic groups participating in the oppositionmovement. In contrast to approaches that focus on overall state institutions and ethnic practices,our findings highlight the value of understanding military loyalty through a relational lens thattakes into account the social intersection of both soldiers and dissidents.

Authors

• Paul Lorenzo Johnson, Independent researcher

• Ches Thurber, Northern Illinois University