Determinants of Public Support for Protest Movements

• In Event: Attitudes toward Political Protest and Violence

Abstract

The United States has seen an enormous increase in protest activity on both the right and left over the last several years. While these groups vary in terms of their membership, political aims, and tactics, all must win public support to succeed in achieving their goals. What determines public support for a protest movement? Extant survey research suggest that conservatives are overall less likely to support protest and that violent protest in particular can backfire. However, most of these studies focus on public reactions to liberal protest groups, ignoring the potential impact of the ideological goals of the protest movement itself. These studies also tend to overlook how the membership of a protest movement could affect public attitudes, particularly in terms of race. Yet both may be critical for understanding variation in public support for protest movements. For instance, polling from the Pew Research Center conducted in the summer of 2020 showed that many white conservatives saw the Black Lives Matter movement largely as an excuse for violent or criminal behavior. On the other hand, polling conducted in the wake of the 2021 invasion of the Capitol found that large portions of white conservatives – while not quite voicing approval – nonetheless empathized with the rioters. This apparent contradiction suggests that public animosity toward the Black Lives Matter movement may have had less to do with its tactics than with its racial composition and political goals. Is there any form of peaceful protest for racial justice that could gain the support of conservative whites? Conversely, how violent would a conservative protest need to become to produce wholesale condemnation from other conservative whites? This study uses an experimental approach to isolate the causal impact of protest groups’ racial composition, ideological goals, and tactics on public support across American society. It reveals that, contrary to much of the existing literature, conservatives are not uniquely opposed protest – even violent protest – based on principle. In fact, they express strong support for protest groups that align with their racial and political ideologies. Moreover, while violent protest may deter more moderate portions of the public from expressing support, neither will peaceful protest win over the opposition. People tend to believe that the ends justify the means when a protest group consists of members who look and think like them.

Authors

• Pavielle Haines, Rollins College

• Addiel Pérez, Rollins College