Economic Conditions, Party Polarization, and Satisfaction with Democracy

• In Event: Political Ideologies and Polarization

Abstract

Political parties are becoming more polarized across established democracies, at least in terms of variations from the mean party. Political disagreements are necessary for a representative democracy–they may even enhance policy outcomes and affirm citizens’ democratic values. However, persistent political discord disrupts politicians’ effectiveness in legislating policies and may thrush societal differences into center stage. Indeed, previous research has found that party polarization lowers citizens’ satisfaction with the democratic process. This suggests that the degree to which all parties represent citizens’ policy preferences influences their satisfaction with the democratic process.

Meanwhile, governments’ economic performance affects citizens’ satisfaction with democracy (Clarke, Dutt, and Kornberg 1993), suggesting that the providence of goods is a central component of democratic legitimacy. When citizens’ economic wellbeing is threatened, the legitimacy of democratic institutions also comes under fire (Gilley 2006), and vice versa for a good economy. Seen in this light, it is conceivable that the intensity of citizens’ policy preferences is not independent of their material well-being. For instance, while a voter prefers the government to invest more money in the national healthcare system, the intensity of this preference may vary with his/her perception of the national economy’s wellbeing.

In this paper, I contend that the state of the economy alters the relationship between party polarization and citizens’ satisfaction with democracy. When the economy booms, citizens’ economic wellbeing improves. This not only reduces the intensity of their preferences for political representation by parties, but they may also prefer parties to offer different policies, as a good economy reduces a government’s need to focus on the economy. In contrast, when the economy goes south, citizens place more value on political representation in order to safeguard their economic interests and wellbeing. As such, citizens prefer parties to be less divisive in their policy platform and cooperate to turn the economy around. The implication, then, is that the state of the economy moderates the relationship between party polarization and citizens’ satisfaction with democracy. Citizens are less satisfied with democracy if parties are polarized, but only when the economy deteriorates.

I test my argument using Waves 1 to 4 of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) Surveys and the Rounds 6-9 of the European Social Surveys. Results from multilevel regression models support my argument. When citizens perceive the economy as declining, polarization exerts a negative and statistically significant impact on their satisfaction with democracy. In contrast, when the economy is perceived to be improving, polarization does not reduce citizens’ satisfaction with democracy. Partisanship moderates this relationship. For government partisans, polarization is not deleterious to their satisfaction with democracy, regardless of the state of the economy. Economic decline, then, exacerbates polarization’s effect on citizens’ satisfaction with democracy, particularly for opposition partisans and non-partisans. These findings bear normative significance on democratic representation in general. They also call for a new line of research to examine party behavior in response to national economic conditions.

Author

• Florence So, Lund University