Black Voters and Candidate Electability in Primary Elections

• In Event: Race, Party, and Geography

Abstract

This project investigates black voting behavior within primary elections, as extant literature omits an understanding of how black Americans navigate this important step in the electoral process. Black Americans prefer descriptive representatives and Democrats in elections, but how do they navigate primary elections? I argue that electability guides black voting behavior in primary elections. I theorize that because of their unique history with the American party system, blacks are more likely to favor any Democrat over any Republican in the contemporary electoral context, and this sentiment not only guides voting in general elections, but in primary elections as well. In a survey experiment I vary the types of information that signals electability and show that black Americans support the candidate that will likely win in the general election. This work has strong implications for understanding black voting behavior, and the ways in which candidates can win the black voting bloc.

Author

• Jasmine Smith, Duke University