Is Protest a Luxury? Evidence from Iraq

• In Event: Political Behavior in the Middle East

Abstract

Iraq has witnessed significant protests since October 2019. Two years after the military defeat of ISIS as a major fighting force, Iraq saw the start of a large and vibrant protest movement, that persisted in the face of violent crackdowns and the onset of COVID-19. There is a clear pattern to the protests. They have occurred overwhelmingly in Shia Arab-populated areas of Iraq and have been almost non-existent in Sunni Arab areas of the country. This presents a puzzle. Why would Iraqi Shias, who have a far greater amount of political power and objectively better living conditions than Iraqi Sunnis be the vast majority of protesters in Iraq? Why are the Sunnis not protesting their living conditions in the rubble of post-ISIS controlled areas and their lack of influence in the Iraqi political system? This study argues that the differences in relative needs of Shia and Sunnis account for their differing propensity to protest. We contend that human behavior is motivated by the needs for significance, sustenance, or safety. Significance is the psychological need to feel that one matters, is respected, and has some control over one’s life. Unlike standard relative deprivation arguments about protest and rebellion, we posit that those individuals who seek to achieve a basic level of safety and sustenance to survive are less likely to protest than those who are primarily concerned about a loss of significance. In other words, when survival is at stake, protest is a luxury. Using data from a survey conducted in Iraq in the Spring of 2020, we test these arguments using an ordered probit analysis and find that the hypotheses are supported.

Authors

• Karl C. Kaltenthaler, University of Akron

• Mujtaba Isani, University of Mannheim

• Daniel Silverman, Carnegie Mellon University