Predicting the 2020 Presidential Election: Voter Choice, Campaigns, and Media

• In Event: Elections and Voting Behavior Virtual Poster Session
  In Virtual Poster Session: Elections and Voting Behavior: Electoral Campaigns, Systems, and Strategy Virtual Poster Session

Abstract

The 2016 U.S. presidential election shook many predictive models and polls. How did Donald Trump, a characteristically uncouth Washington outsider, sweep the Electoral College from Hillary Clinton by 77 electoral votes? Despite numerous predictions of a solid Clinton win, her lead of nearly 2.9 million popular votes was not enough to secure the presidency.

What can we learn from 2016, and how can we more accurately apply scholarly research and models to predict the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential election? The answer lies in a closer examination of American political behavior, the electorate’s composition, what drives vote choice, campaigns, and media’s influence. I predict Joseph R. Biden will win the 2020 election, and national voter turnout will be higher than in 2016. This paper will analyze relevant theories on American voting behavior and assess their relationship to our current political schema.

Author

• Danielle Dougall, California State University Long Beach